Obama's re-election challenge

Most people are aware that President Obama's approval rating has fallen dramatically in the last 12 mos and is now below 50%.  While he still wins most of the hypothetical races against his Republican challengers, this is largely due to the differences in name recognition between an incumbent President and challengers that are not household names at this point in the election cycle.  Obama's election chances would be slim if the election were held today.  Of course, the election is over a year in the future and "a week is a long time in politics" much less a year.

President Obama has lost ground since 2008 in critical voter demographic groups such as Independent , Jewish voters, Young and, even black Americans.    With unemployment over 9% and hitting blue-collar and youth employment particularly hard, the President is vulnerable in many states.  Many of his core constituents, especially young, Jewish and Black Americans, are less enthusiastic about Obama today than in 2008.  Even a 5% decline in turnout among these key Democratic demographic groups, and others, such as union members, would be a serious problem for the President. 

In analyzing his 2012 election prospects we need to start with an analysis of 2008.  Obama's election victory is widely misunderstood.  Since the end of WWII, only once has a party held the Presidency for 3 consecutive elections: Reagan/Bush in 1980-88.  In fact since 1900, it has happened only 3 additional times.  It is the nature of American politics that once a President serves 2 terms, the public is likely to want a change (remember, "Hope & Change"). The Outsider can always run on a platform of "its time for a change".  President Obama was particularly adept at using this theme, but don't forget that Bill Clinton was also. 

Despite the advantage of running in an environment in which the Republican incumbent was extraordinarily unpopular, the 2008 election was much closer than understood due to the vagaries of the electoral college.  Obama won the election with 365 electoral votes, or 95 more than the 270 necessary to win.  But consider that the election in the following states in 2008 was very close. These states might easily swing to the Republican nominee in 2012 especially if the economy continues to be weak and unemployment high. (The electoral votes shown below represent the votes allocated in the 2012 election not the 2008 election due to the changes resulting from the 2010 census.)

NC 15 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 14,000 votes,
CO 9 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 200,000 (4%)
FL  29 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 200,000 votes (1.25%)
NM 5 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 120,000 votes (7%)
Ohio 18 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 200,000  (2%)
VA 13 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 220,000 (3%)
IN 11 Electoral votes, O margin of victory 24,000 votes (less than 1%)
=total 100 Electoral votes, O margin of victory !,000,000 (less than 1.0% of national votes)

Close McCain Wins were MO 10 Electoral Votes, and MT 3 Electoral votes. 

These are likely to be the battleground states in the 2012 election, along with PA (20 Electoral votes).  If you eliminate NM, VA, IN, MT and CO as traditionally Red States, the battleground states have a familiar ring:  OH, FL, PA, MO for a total of 77 Electoral votes in these key "Super" swing states.  In the latest polls from Real Clear Politics, Obama leads Romney by 1 or 2 percentage points (within the margin of error) in OH, FL and PA. 

If we look at 2010 mid term elections, several Blue states won by Obama in 2008 are vulnerable to a moderate Republican nominee, such as Wis (Rep Gov), IL (Rep Senator), MN (Rep Gov), NH (not happy with President Obama), IA, Nev and even Mich. Very few McCain states, other than MO, are vulnerable.  If any of these Blue states turn Red, it would cushion a Dem victory in PA.   

From this standpoint, it is not surprising that President Obama is focusing on shoring up his standing about his base.  If he has further slippage, he will suffer the same fate as Mondale, or Carter.