Huge Pile of cash has missed the market rally

I noticed the following tweet earlier today:

Investors Are Sitting on the Biggest Pile of Cash Ever – Grappling with the most economic uncertainty in decades and a head-spinning stretch of volatility in the U.S. stock market, many investors have rushed into money-market funds. Assets in the funds recently swelled to about $4.6 trillion, the highest level on record, according to data from Refinitiv Lipper going back to 1992. WSJ 

While the cash is sitting in MMFs earning 0% interest, the SPX has rallied 30% off the March 23 low and the NASDAQ 100 has breached its all time high several times.  NDX100 currently is at 10,015.23.  SPX is at 3,126.84.  (12:29p)

This is a good reminder that nobody can time the market.  Some of the smartest financial minds have missed this market rally, including Warren Buffett.  The rally was initially led by the WFM stocks, such as ZM, NFLX, ZS, CRWD, AMZN, but rotated swiftly into the 'recovery' plays such as airlines, hotels, and cruise lines.  

With little corporate guidance, it is entirely possible that this move into cyclical recovery stocks is too soon too fast.  Personally, I don't try to pick tops or bottoms, but simply look to allocate assets to good companies at good prices.  I DO try to notice if the tide is moving in or out.  While the recovery stocks might be priced on a too-rosy scenario, it is likely that there will be a recovery over the next 18 months and all of these stocks and the underlying operating businesses will approach 2019 levels.  

On the other hand, the Pandemic-enforced WFM movement probably has changed or accelerated changes in our lifestyles on a permanent basis.  Video conferencing will grow; delivery/take out dining will grow, and of course, streaming will grow.  I am not opining on the current price levels, just pointing out that major secular shifts are evident to any careful observer and these shifts will be reflected in stock prices over a long period of time.  

Finally, being fully invested does not mean solely in equities.  If you are saving for retirement, a 50/50 split between high quality long term bonds and stocks is still a sensible path.  As a side note, at the market low, at the time that the SPX was down 40% from its high, a 50/50 portfolio would have been down only about 5% (measured as of March 23).